Consumers feasted on online deals in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and will see even more savory discounts in the days ahead, says Adobe Analytics.
U.S. online retail sales totaled $63.2 billion from Nov. 1-20, a 5% increase from the same period last year, driven by heavy discounting in such categories as electronics, toys, apparel and TVs, says Adobe Analytics, part of technology company Adobe Inc. Adobe predicts shoppers will purchase an additional $37.2 billion online from Thanksgiving Day through next Monday, widely known as Cyber Monday, a 5.4% year-over-year increase.
“All eyes are on the consumer as we near Cyber Week, given a holiday season where shoppers are dealing with rising costs, and retailers are contending with an uncertain demand environment,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement. “Ecommerce growth has remained resilient so far due to strong early discounts, while also being driven by more impulse shopping on mobile devices and an uptick in the use of flexible payment methods.”
Adobe previously reported that U.S. online retail sales increased 59% in October over the same month last year, driven by heavy promotions, including Amazon Inc.’s Prime Big Deals Days Oct. 10-11 and competing deals offered by such competitors as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. Amazon is No. 1 in the 2023 Digital Commerce 360 Top 1000, a ranking of North America’s leading retailers and brands by online sales, Walmart No. 2 and Target No. 5.
Adobe’s figures are not adjusted for inflation, and notes that average online prices are down 6% compared to October 2022. Were it not for that drop in prices, sales growth would be even stronger, the company notes.
Online sales are up 6% for the season so far and rose 6.8% year over year on Tuesday of this week, according to Signifyd, a provider of fraud prevention software that estimates web sales based on client transaction data. Signifyd notes average order value is up only 1%, suggesting shoppers are taking advantage of heavy discounts, and says 76.6% of transactions so far include discount codes, down from 78.9% in the same period last year.
Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day
Adobe predicts Cyber Monday will be the season’s biggest online shopping day, as it’s been in most recent years, with $12 billion in e-retail sales, an increase of 6.1% from the Monday after Thanksgiving last year. The firm predicts Black Friday online sales will hit $9.6 billion, up 5.7% year over year, and Thanksgiving Day $5.6 billion, up 5.5%.
Discounts in the first three weeks of November were especially heavy in electronics, peaking at 24% off list price, and in apparel (21%), televisions (19%), appliances (17%), sporting goods (15%) and furniture (13%). Those deals helped drive up online sales of toys by 76% when compared to the daily in October 2023, while sales of appliances were up 30%, and apparel 22%, Adobe says.
Online retailers will offer the best deals on TVs, as much as 22% off, on Black Friday, Adobe says. Sunday will feature the biggest discounts for toys (35%) and apparel (25%), and Cyber Monday the best deals on electronics (30%) and furniture (19%), according to Adobe. The steepest discounts on appliances, 20%, will be offered on Thursday, Nov. 30.
Buy now, pay later is up, curbside pickup down
Adobe’s data for the first 20 days of November also show the following:
- Shoppers chose buy now, pay later options to purchase $4.9 billion online, up $620 million over last year. That’s a significant 14.5% increase that mirrors the 14.4% rise in BNPL revenue to $63.4 billion from Jan. 1 through Nov. 20.
- Mobile devices accounted for 48.7% of online spending Nov. 1-20, up from 45.5% last year. That represented $30.8 billion in purchases on phones and tablets, up 12.4% year over year. Adobe predicts mobile sales will hit $113 billion for November and December this year, a 13.7% increase over last year.
- Curbside pickup accounted for 17.1% of orders for online retailers that offered that option, a decline from 19.4% last year, which Adobe attributes to better shipping offers from retailers and more consumers shopping in stores. Adobe expects more consumers will choose the curbside option in December to ensure they get holiday purchases on time and to avoid shipping fees.
- The hottest toys in the first 20 days of November included card games, Roblox toys, Squishmallows, Barbie dolls & products, and Legos. The Nintendo Switch and PlayStation 5 were top-selling gaming consoles, and Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Spiderman 2 were the hottest games. Other top sellers included pajamas, holiday décor, makeup gift sets, headphones and sweaters.
Adobe bases its estimates on retailer client data that covers over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, the company says.
Adobe is a major provider of ecommerce technology in several categories to retailers in the 2023 Digital Commerce 360 Top 1000. The Top 1000 database lists Adobe as the provider of analytics technology to 203 Top 1000 retailers, website design and development tools 100 and ecommerce platform 84.
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